Sunday, November 21, 2010

Midseason NFL Report: NFC West and South

We're finishing the NFC portion of the Midseason NFL Report, concluding with the West and South divisions. The AFC portion of this blog will be available before the radio show on Tuesday.

NFC West

Seahawks
Current Record: 5-5
Final Record: 9-7

How bad is the NFC West this year? The Seahawks team stats: 22nd in Passing, 28th in Rushing, 28th in Passing Yds allowed, and a mediocre 14th in Rushing Yds allowed. 185 points scored, 233 allowed. Matt Hasselbeck has 7 TD's and 7 Int's. Despite such mediocrity, this Seahawks team would have a home game if the playoffs started today. That's how bad the NFC West is. They have the Chiefs and Panthers at home, both very winable games especially with the 12th man in the house. Then they have San Fran, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta to test their durability and these games will be crucial if they want to sneak into the playoffs. I do not want to see an 8-8 team in the playoffs, so I'll say the Seahawks finish 9-7.

Rams
Current Record: 4-6
Final Record: 6-10

It's pretty unbelievable this Rams team turned around a terrible season last year, into a season that can best be described as "not too shabby". Well considering that they are 4-6 and only a game out of 1st place in the NFC West, these boys from St. Louis could accidentally win this division. Steven Jackson has been up and down with only 3 TD's and 700 yards. Sam Bradford is a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and their run defense is top 10 in the NFL. They have the Cardinals, Saints, and Chiefs in a row and that's what scares me. Not to mention Denver in Mile High, and the Niners and Seahawks to end the season. All those teams hittin the Rams back to back....I see them ending 2-4. Compared to last season, if they end 6-10 the Rams can pat themselves on the back for a pretty solid turnaround.

49ers
Current Record: 3-7
Final Record: 5-11

This Niners team was supposed to run away with this division this year, then joined the list of lost causes after the first month and a half. Searching for their first win, all the while making Goodell feel sick for giving London a game between them and the Broncos. But then a win in Oakland, followed by a 2 game win streak, now winners of 3 out of 5....wait a minute! This team is sort of back in the hunt. Only 2 games out, this Niners team got a fresh start with Troy Smith, who has been looking pretty solid but not the answer. They have a pretty tough schedule to end out the season, including 4 division games, Green Bay and San Diego. I say they win 2 games at best and finish this disappointing season 5-11.

Cardinals
Current Record: 3-7
Final Record: 4-12

Bye weeks are supposed to be gifts from the schedule makers to grant a team a week of rest. Teams usually thrive after this time, but not the Arizona Cardinals. 3-2 heading into their bye week, they have not won since they beat the Saints on Oct 10th. This team lost its veteran leadership they had in Kurt Warner, and Derek Anderson proves that they need a valid QB. Obviously slumping, they are not above 27th in any category on offense or defense. They have 4 home games remaining, but despite that I think they keeping falling and end 1-5, bringing them to a dismal 1-10 after their bye week.

College Football Thoughts

All across the country yesterday, the college football action was stellar. LSU scored in the final minute at home to beat Ole Miss, Stanford kicked the door down against Cal to win the annual "Big Game," and the Big 10 stayed gridlocked at the top with a berth to the Rose Bowl on the line.

But nothing was more special (at least for us local fans) than UC Davis' 17-16 victory in the Causeway Classic over Sacramento State. It was an epic, rain-soaked game which included a 47-minute severe weather delay during halftime because of torrential rain and lightning. The wind was consistently between 25 and 30 MPH, with gusts of winds close to double those numbers. I wasn't at the game, but just on television you could get an idea of how insane the weather was. After the delay, roughly 1,000 of the announced 9,785 remained at Aggie Stadium.

The Aggies kicked a field goal with 6:34 remaining after a game-changing turnover gave UC Davis the ball inside the Sacramento State 10-yard line. The Aggies faced a fourth down at midfield in the fourth quarter, and punted away to Hornet returner Kyle Monson, who muffed the catch, allowing Aggie special teams player Stephen Dunstan to recover at the 8-yard line. From there, the Aggies failed to score a touchdown but Sean Kelley converted the field goal that put UC Davis ahead for good.

UC Davis honored 14 seniors before the game: Marshall Congdon, Sean Creadick, Jeff Freeman, Reggie Mason, Tom McConnell, Marcus North, Dean Rogers, Eric Sobotka, Brandon Sofley, Mark Tos, Joe Trombetta, Brandon Tucker, Dozie Amajoyi and Danny Hart.
___________________________________________________________________________________ 

Amongst the rest of the college football world, all the top teams maintained themselves atop of the BCS Standings. Boise State used a 51-0 win over Fresno State to move closer in the BCS Standings to #3 TCU, who was idle. Boise State (#4) has two games remaining, including a showdown this weekend with #17 Nevada. TCU has one game remaining. 

Oregon remained #1 and Auburn remained #2, both also having no game this past weekend. Oregon hosts Arizona in the upcoming weekend and Auburn travels to face Alabama, which is arguably the most challenging game of their season thus far. 

In regards to the games I made notes about prior to the weekend:

-Boise State dominated Fresno State, 51-0. Kellen Moore threw for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns for the Broncos. It was an incredible defensive game from Boise State which I did not anticipate. I figured the decent Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn and running back Robbie Rouse would get Fresno State on the scoreboard.

-Florida pummeled Appalachian State 48-10, with the Mountaineers having no hope of repeating an upset of a D-I team as they did against Michigan in 2007. The Gators rushed for 311 yards and 6 touchdowns in the victory.

-Ohio State scored in the final two minutes to beat Iowa 20-17. The Buckeyes remain in the hunt for the Big 10 title, tied atop the league with Michigan State and Wisconsin. Dan Herron scored on a 1-yard run with 1:47 left to put Ohio State ahead for good.

-Stanford beat Cal 48-14 in the annual rivalry matchup, the "Big Game." Andrew Luck completed 16 of 20 passes for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns in a tidy performance by the Cardinal, that spoke "business as usual." Stanford is #6 in the BCS Standings and hosts Oregon State next Saturday with Rose Bowl hopes still on the line. 

-Notre Dame beat Army 27-3 at Yankee Stadium in one of the many Fighting Irish rivalry games. Notre Dame allowed only 39 yards passing and held Army to 3.1 yards per rush. Army led 3-0 after the first quarter before allowing 27 unanswered points. 

In regards to getting our "picks" correct, we were right on 4 of 5 (Iowa lost) but didn't get terribly close on any of the score predictions. We did predict a 19-17 victory for UC Davis in the Causeway Classic, which was only off by 3 points combined (17-16). 

Check back later this week for another college football preview, looking into Auburn's big game at Alabama and Boise State's contest at Nevada. GO AGS!

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Midseason NFL Report Part 2: The NFC North Strikes Back

In this latest installment of the Midseason NFL Report, we're gonna look at the NFC North. I covered the NFC East on Monday, and the rest of the NFC Report will come this weekend. Look for the AFC Report on Monday Night. Ohhhh...the NFC North, there are a lot of questions coming out of this clusterf...er, jam that we've got there. Let us take a deeper look into this unpredictable division.

NFC North

Bears
Current Record: 7-3
Final Record: 9-7

This Bears team has flown under the radar out of the NFC North, and at 7-3 they could quietly be a contender to come out of the NFC. However, their durability will definitely be tested in these next couple weeks, with Philly upcoming next week, then New England, Minnesota, the J-E-T-S, before finishing the season off with a trip to Lambeau in a game that will decide the NFC North division crown. If we based this wacky season on statistics, the Bears are a miracle to be where they are now. 27th in Passing Yds, 20th in Rushing. Their defense is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, and outside the top 10 in passing yds allowed. Definitely a wild card, this Bears team controls their own destiny, if not Green Bay is lurking...Speaking of which...

Packers
Current Record: 6-3
Final Record: 12-4

How bout facing this team right now? The Packers have won 3 in a row (none of which were nailbiters either). They own a +78 in points, the best in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers has made this offense click, without Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley, as well as an unhealthy Donald Driver. Clay Matthews in his sophomore season has evolved into arguably the best linebacker in the NFL, and has kept this defense solid despite releasing Al Harris for an unproven rookie. Only stat that scares me, is their road record. A mediocre 2-2, they have a very hard schedule on the road. 4 of their final 7 games are on the road with trips to: Atlanta and Mr. 18-1 at home Matt Ryan, New England and the mosquito-like Patriots. I call them that because for the last decade they've been like mosquitoes, they just won't go away. Annoying, spray them with draft picks and random talent, and they just turn it around into a success. Before I rant too much, the Patriots on Sunday Night will prove whether the Packers can hang outside of the weak NFC. Despite their hard schedule, I say Aaron Rodgers gets this team to a 6-1 second half and easily winning the division over the Bears.

Vikings
Current Record: 3-6
Final Record: 6-10

Only 7 more episodes/weeks of the Brett Favre saga until the series finale, and they cannot come fast enough. See what happens when you hype a football team nowadays? The media blows it so out of proportion, that the players cannot block it out and therefore their performance falters. I.E. the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre coming off a career year in which he was once again one mistake away from reaching a Super Bowl. Other team with their kind of hype was my Dallas Cowboys and their homecoming Super Bowl, and we're seeing how these teams handle the spotlight. Favre better handle the reins and end his career right, because we're seeing front and center that you might not see a difference between 30 and 31, but 40 and 41 is a whole different ballgame. This Favre looks hopeless, with 10 TD's and 16 INT's, Favre might not have a choice but to retire. Peterson has been trying his best to carry his team with 908 yards and 7 TD's. Say what you want about the offense, but this defense has shown up week to week. Top 10 in both passing and rushing yds allowed, this defense is just waiting for the offense to pick things up. I forecast a 3-4 end to the season, as their division is pretty gnarly this year. Favre can go out quietly at the end of the year, and this year will be forgiveable when compared to his illustrious career. Although, it would have probably been better for him to go out Clint Eastwood style last year, gunslinging till the end.

Lions
Current Record: 2-7
Final Record: 3-13

I feel so bad for this Lions team. This year of rebuilding was screwed from the get go, as 4 of their first 6 games were on the road. Their passing game is nothing to mess with, as Calvin Johnson is proving that he is among the best in the game with 9 TD's. This season, home field advantage has been big for teams such as Detroit and Seattle, and the schedule favors the Lions there. With a 3 game home stand against Chicago, New England, and Green Bay, I'm not sure if home field is gonna matter against those teams. Stafford got hurt again, this team needs a power back to set up Jahvid Best, and with a very hard closing schedule against good teams, I see this team winning 1 mayyyybe 2 games at most.

Friday, November 19, 2010

College Football Preview

A quick quiz to start off this week's college football preview:

How many end zones does it take to play a college football game?
...
......
........
...........
..............
..................
.....................
.......................
..................
...............
............
.........
.......
.....
...

If you guess two, should should be horribly embarrassed and ashamed and know that you're wrong. Obviously, it only takes one. Saturday's football matchup at Wrigley Field features the Northwestern Wildcats battling the Illinois Illini for in-state supremacy. It is the first time Wrigley Field has hosted a football game since 1970, and evidently game officials don't recall how to properly set up the stadium for a football game. Due to the unique dimensions of the park, Big Ten officials have announced that only one end zone will be used due to safety concerns. To get a better understanding, you can read the article linked above, or just take note of these bullet points:


• All offensive plays will head toward the west end zone, including all extra points and all overtime possessions.

• All kickoffs will be kicked toward the east end zone.
• After every change of possession, the ball will be repositioned for the offense to head toward the west end zone.

It will be very interesting to watch the teams play towards only one end zone. I feel just horrible for the fans sitting in the opposite end of the "one endzone," who thought they'd see endzone action right in front of them but instead might only get to witness a defensive touchdown at their end. I'm also excited for this scenario:
Northwestern has the ball with under one minute to play in the first quarter; handoff to the running back goes for six yards, tackled at their own 27. The time in the first quarter expires, and the teams head to the other end of the field because normally they would switch directions. Then they all realize they don't get to move at all and trudge back.
Also, choosing which end you want to defend during the coin toss is completely irrelevant, since now you don't get to pick which end you defend at.

Northwestern is the "home" team in this matchup (3:30pm ET kickoff on Saturday), despite being played at a neutral site. Their campus is significantly closer to Chicago, so it can be assumed this is only fair. Nonetheless, Northwestern (7-3) is 7.5 point underdogs against Illinois (5-5). Our pick is indeed for the Illini to cover the spread (and win 31-16); but only because Northwestern lost stud quarterback Dan Persa last weekend to an injury and he will not play for the remainder of the season. However, one stat that I was intrigued by (courtesy of Rivals) is that Northwestern has either been winning or tied in every single one of its past 26 games, dating back to November 2008.

Other important games this weekend:

Fresno State (6-3) at Boise State (9-0), Friday 9:30pm ET

Important just because Boise State is still undefeated, and is watched every week to make sure they stay that way. The Broncos have never lost a WAC home game, and this one should be no different (30.5 point favorites). Nonetheless, Boise State is in the spotlight every week.

The pick: Boise State 48, Fresno State 24

Appalachian State (9-1) at Florida (6-4), Saturday 12:30pm ET

Anytime Appalachian State plays a relevant team from the FBS, it has to be mentioned. Ever since 2007 when Appalachian State beat Michigan in the Big House, we've kept an eye on them in big games. Now, Florida is easily favored in this game, but now nobody can count out Appalachian State.

The pick: Florida 34, Appalachian State 20

Ohio State (9-1) at Iowa (7-3), Saturday 3:30pm ET

Ohio State has won 11 of the past 12 against the Hawkeyes, and needs this win to stay tied atop the Big 10. But Iowa has a gritty habit of getting upsets, and they are in particularly good shape because they are playing at home. Fortunately for Terrell Pryor, even if he and the Buckeyes lose this one, he can try again next year. (Ohio State is 3-point favorites)

The pick: Iowa 30, Ohio State 21

Stanford (9-1) at Cal (5-5), Saturday 3:30pm ET

It's the "Big Game," so it is definitely a "Big Deal." Stanford comes in with BCS hopes still fully intact, while Cal dreams of spoiling the Cardinal season in Berkeley. Cal left it all out on the field last weekend, barely losing to #1 Oregon 15-13; their defense and how it responds after last week will dictate whether the Bears can pull the upset over favored Stanford (-6.5). Also, the weather forecast

The pick: Stanford 26, Cal 13

Army (6-4) at Notre Dame (5-5), Saturday 7:00pm ET

This one is exciting because it is one of two games being played this weekend in a professional baseball stadium. Fans will pack Yankee Stadium for this one, the first time these two will meet in the new Yankee Stadium (22 meetings in old Yankee Stadium). Notre Dame has won 13 in a row in this series, and lead the series overall 37-8-4. The Fighting Irish are 8-point favorites on Saturday.

The pick: Notre Dame 24, Army 19

These games also have importance this weekend:
Virginia Tech at Miami, Saturday 3:30pm ET
Nebraska at Texas A&M, Saturday 8:00pm ET
Wisconsin at Michigan, Saturday 12:00pm ET

And don't forget the Causeway Classic! Sacramento State at UC Davis, Saturday at 4:07pm locally. Go Ags!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thursday Night Football

Only minimal time to mention our pick for tonight's NFL game, but something is better than nothing:

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
8:20pm ET

Our pick: Chicago 24, Miami 16

Why?
Well, foremost, an injury concern for the Dolphins is the health of their quarterbacks. Both Chad Henne and Chad Pennington were injured last weekend and will not be available for tonight's game. Tyler Thigpen is starting for Miami, and that is bad news for the home squad.

The Bears defense played tremendously well last weekend in a victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and we anticipate a continued display of those efforts tonight against the Dolphins. Miami may gain some good field position courtesy of some Chicago turnovers, but the Dolphins will have to settle for too many Dan Carpenter field goals in order to beat Miami.

MLS Cup Final

Are you a soccer junkie? This weekend, the MLS season wraps up with the championship game, coming from Toronto, Canada. Kickoff is at 8:30pm ET on Sunday evening, televised on ESPN.

For a full preview of the upcoming action, check out The SACK Lunch blog, where you can gain all sorts of insight to the matchup between the Colorado Rapids and FC Dallas. By gametime, it will even include our own prediction for the outcoming of the MLS Cup Final.

Causeway Classic Preview

When rivals clash, it goes without saying that anything is possible; teams can put together a miracle upset, an incredible last second touchdown to win or have a defensive stand that seals a sweet victory.

A historic timeline continues on Saturday here in Davis, when the UC Davis Aggies host the Sacramento State Hornets in the 57th edition of the football Causeway Classic. With stadiums separated by only 20.1 miles (thank you, Google maps), it is not a long trek for the Hornets to come to Davis for Saturday’s 4:07pm kickoff at Aggie Stadium.

UC Davis added to the rivalry already in 2010, paving the way for a continued legacy upon announcing a major change this past September within the football program. Beginning in 2012 or 2013, UC Davis football will compete in the Big Sky, a conference which has had Sacramento State as a member since 1996.

Sacramento State comes in with an overall record of 6-4, including a 5-3 mark in Big Sky Conference play. The Hornets have won three games in a row, all conference matchups. The Hornets primary offensive contributors are quarterback Jeff Fleming, running back Bryan Hillard and wide receiver tandem Chase Deadder and Morris Norrise. Peter Buck leads the Hornets with 90 tackles this season, and Zack Nash leads the Sacramento State pass rush with a team-high 13 sacks.

UC Davis comes in with an overall record of 5-5, including a 3-1 mark in Great West Conference play. The Aggies have won two games in a row, both in conference play. The Aggies offensive is led by redshirt freshman quarterback Randy Wright, running back Nick Aprile and wide receiver Sean Creadick. Defensively, Dozie Amajoyi leads UC Davis with 84 tackles. Eric Sobotka has recorded 4 sacks to lead UC Davis in that department.

Quick Stats to remember on gameday:
-UC Davis leads the all-time series 39-18
-Sacramento State has won the previous two meetings
-The weather forecast calls for a 70% chance of rain and a high of 51 degrees
-UC Davis won every season from 2000-2007

In-Depth Stats for this matchup:
  • Sacramento State averages 33.7 points per game
  • UC Davis averages 21.6 points per game
  • Sacramento State is allowing 25.5 points per game
  • UC Davis is allowing 27.9 points per game
  • Sacramento State averages 394.6 yards per game
  • UC Davis averages 318.2 yards per game
  • Sacramento State is allowing 352.1 yards per game
  • UC Davis is allowing 387.0 yards per game
Random stats that could have an affect on this game:
  • Sacramento State has attempted 2 onside kicks this season, and recovered both
  • UC Davis has attempted 1 onside kick this season, and recovered it successfully
  • Sacramento State's defense has recorded 25 sacks this season
  • UC Davis' defense has recorded 15 sacks this season
  • Sacramento State has made 12 of 13 field goal attempts this season
  • UC Davis has made 12 of 15 field goal attempts this season
  • Sacramento State has converted 7 of 14 on their fourth-down attempts
  • UC Davis has converted 7 of 15 on their fourth-down attempts
  • Sacramento State averages 10.2 yards per punt return
  • UC Davis averages 2.9 yards per punt return
Our pick; UC Davis 19, Sacramento State 17